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A mere eight weeks prior that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as Unai Emery admonished him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his displays were a symptom or the reason for the team's wider issues.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

In the latest match, in contrast, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. As Rogers curled home his second strike to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The team marched on to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning any of their first six matches, now sit a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Serious Challengers?

This is an exceptionally difficult proposition to resolve. The historical record, a general sense of Villa, argues against it. Additionally, they have not been entirely convincing this season, even as the wins have stacked up.

Per Opta, twice all season have Villa had an xG notably superior than the other team. For a club who have strung together ten consecutive victories, they seem weirdly vulnerable – but at the moment the margins are going in their favour.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for their talisman to save the day with two crisp finishes. This occurred at Leeds, it occurred in London, and again when facing Manchester United.

His opener stemmed from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition had more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all except one of those matches.

Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival they will encounter in the near future. Their key man, surely, cannot maintain blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is an alternative path where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still return to peak condition.

• The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
• The attacking talent might become the force he was during his peak.
• The defensive duo are set to regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.

Relishing the Unlikely

But then, this was unforeseen. Few believed the team would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.

The current run must be cherished exactly since it feels so unlikely. When Rogers stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.